Above the Fold: Supply Chain Logistics News (October 3, 2025)

By Adrian Gonzalez

It’s October — we have entered the final stretch of 2025 (aka “The Year of the Tariffs”).

Here in Boston, the weather can’t decide whether to step into fall completely or hang on to summer a bit longer, with temperatures ranging from the 40s in the mornings to almost 80F in the afternoons. The trees aren’t fooled, however. Their leaves are starting to turn colors and fall, as evidenced by the many leaves (and acorns) covering my lawn. The sun knows the season too, setting each day earlier and earlier.

And in case I still wasn’t convinced that summer is over, I have a cold — not a bad one, but annoying enough to keep me off my bike this week.

Speaking of cycling, David Shaw from Transporeon and I did a fun 100K ride around Amsterdam last week after Transporeon Summit. We did it in support of Breakthrough T1D, the leading non-profit organization dedicated to research and advocacy for type 1 diabetes. Below are some pics from the ride, including one of David and me enjoying stroopwafels after we finished.

The best part was receiving additional donations from readers like you, so thank you to everyone who donated to the cause. I’m now just $1,207 short of my fundraising goal with one ride to go (the Santa Barbara 100 on October 18). In short, it’s not too late to donate, it’s not too late for me to reach my fundraising goal. No amount is too small; every dollar gets us closer to a world without T1D. You can make a tax-deductible donation here: http://www2.breakthrought1d.org/goto/ll4t1dcure

As always, thank you for listening. And with that, here’s the supply chain and logistics news that caught my attention this week:

Wanna Bet on Tariffs?

Another week, another round of new tariffs.

As reported by David Goldman at CNN, Trump said this week that “the United States would begin charging a 10% tariff on foreign softwood lumber and timber, used in a wide variety of building materials. He also announced a 25% tariff on kitchen cabinets, vanities and upholstered wooden furniture. Those rates are set to go into effect October 14. On January 1, Trump will boost the tariff on cabinets to 50% and upholstered furniture to 30%.”

A week earlier, Trump announced 25% tariffs on imported heavy-duty trucks and components. These tariffs “will inflict another round of tariff-fueled cost increases on motor carriers already struggling with stubbornly weak freight volumes and depressed rates, executives and analysts said,” as reported by Keiron Greenhalgh in Transport Topics. Here’s more from the article:

“Trucks will be more expensive at a time when we can least afford it,” Werner Enterprises CEO Derek Leathers told the WEX OTR Summit in San Antonio Oct. 2. Werner ranks No. 18 on the Transport Topics Top 100 list of the largest for-hire carriers in North America.

Details on how the levies would be imposed and collected were scant as of Oct. 2, which kept truck makers understandably tight-lipped about the potential impact.

All of these new tariffs are being implemented despite the fact their legality remains in question. Last month, the Supreme Court agreed to decide the fate of Trump’s tariffs, with arguments on a couple of cases scheduled for the first week in November.

Wanna bet on the outcome? It seems like some on Wall Street are making that bet.

“Wall Street firms are snapping up rights to possible tariff refunds from U.S. importers, betting the Supreme Court will void President Donald Trump’s emergency duties and make the government repay tens of billions collected this year,” reports Noor Bazmi at MSN. Here’s more from the article:

A small circle of hedge funds and niche finance shops is offering about 20 cents per dollar for claims tied to Trump’s “reciprocal” tariffs, and roughly 5 cents per dollar for levies on goods from Canada, Mexico, or China linked to fentanyl trafficking, according to Salvatore Stile, founder of Alba Wheels Up International, a New York customs broker.

For companies that have absorbed most of the tariff costs, these arrangements offer quick cash. Investors aim to keep any remaining refund if the Supreme Court throws out the measures, according to four trade specialists familiar with the transactions.

Would you sell your rights to possible tariff refunds?

I guess it depends on how much is at stake, and assuming the Supreme Court rules against the Trump administration, if you have the expertise and other resources inhouse to deal with all the paperwork and bureaucracy that will be involved in claiming refunds — and the willingness to incur administrative costs too. It’s a headache some companies, especially small ones, might be willing to sell for cents on the dollar.

And with that, I’m out of time. Have a meaningful weekend!

Song of the Week: “I Dare You” by The xx