The hype dial on humanoid robots went to 11 last week when Boston Dynamics unveiled the product version of its new Atlas robot at the Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas. Here are some details from the press release:
Atlas is designed to be an enterprise grade humanoid robot that can perform a wide array of industrial tasks, from material handling to order fulfilment. The robot learns new tasks quickly, adapts to dynamic environments, lifts heavy loads, and works autonomously with minimal supervision … The robot easily connects to MES, WMS, and other industrial systems via Boston Dynamics’ Orbit™ software. And once a single Atlas robot learns a new task, that task can immediately be replicated across the entire fleet of robots.
The robot can be controlled in three different ways: autonomous mode, teleoperated, or by using a tablet steering interface. Atlas has 56 degrees of freedom, fully rotational joints, a reach extending to 2.3M (7.5 ft), and the strength to lift up to 50 kg (110 lbs). The robot is also extremely water-resistant and can operate at diverse temperature ranges from -20° to 40° C (-4° to 104° F). Its safety features include human detection and fenceless guarding, and it can be integrated into workflows using barcode scanners or RFID.
Hyundai Motor Group, Boston Dynamics’ majority shareholder, is preparing to deploy tens of thousands of Boston Dynamics’ robots into its own manufacturing facilities.
The robot was also featured in a 60 Minutes segment last Sunday, which you can watch below. The segment shows the robot in action in an automotive plant setting.
I have to admit, it’s very impressive, especially when you compare this Atlas robot to humanoid robots from just 2-3 years ago.
Maybe it’s this leap in progress that is making investors so bullish on humanoid robots.
In a November 2022 post, Goldman Sachs estimated that “a $6 billion market (or more) in people-sized-and-shaped robots is achievable in the next 10 to 15 years.” A little more than a year later, in a February 2024 post, the financial firm boosted its forecast sixfold:
The total addressable market for humanoid robots is projected to reach $38 billion by 2035, up more than sixfold from a previous projection of $6 billion, Goldman Sachs Research analyst Jacqueline Du, head of China Industrial Technology research, writes in the report. Their estimate for robot shipments increased fourfold, to 1.4 million units, over the same time frame, with a much faster path to profitability on a 40% reduction in the cost of materials.
Hold my beer, says Morgan Stanley.
“Morgan Stanley Research estimates the humanoids market is likely to reach $5 trillion by 2050, plus related supply chains as well as repair, maintenance and support,” the company states in a May 2025 post. “There could be more than 1 billion humanoids in use by 2050.”
Citigroup laughs and raises its glass.
“While this new sector will take time to build, we see 648m units and a $7 trillion humanoid market by 2050,” the company states in a December 2024 report.
I’ve got thirty-eight billion — five trillion — now seven trillion, seven trillion in the corner, thank you sir! Do I hear two quadrillion? Two quadrillion, anyone? Don’t be shy!
Yes, we’re seeing the humanoid robot bubble inflate in real-time.
Even China is getting concerned. The country has 150+ humanoid robot companies, the majority of them startups. As reported by Robert Hart at The Verge:
Speaking at a press briefing [in November 2025], National Development and Reform Commission spokesperson Li Chao said China’s humanoid robotics industry needs to balance “the speed of growth against the risk of bubbles.” Investment has been pouring into the sector despite there being few proven use cases for the bots, Li said, risking a flood of “highly similar” models as funding for research and development shrinks.
How soon until the bubble bursts? What will be the future of humanoid robots afterwards?
The honest truth is that nobody knows with any certainty. Will there be robots in a human form factor, with arms and legs that mimic ours, in our homes and workplaces? I’m sure there will be, but only in applications where they make sense — which, as I’ve said before, probably isn’t inside a warehouse or manufacturing plant. Why have robots with legs, for example, when wheels are so much more efficient?
Last September, Rodney Brooks, the founder and former Chief Technical Officer of iRobot — whom the New York Times called the “Godfather of Modern Robotics” — wrote an essay titled, “Why Today’s Humanoids Won’t Learn Dexterity.” At the end of the essay, he shares his vision of the future of humanoid robots:
Before too long (and we already start to see this) humanoid robots will get wheels for feet, at first two, and later maybe more, with nothing that any longer really resembles human legs in gross form. But they will still be called humanoid robots.
Then there will be versions which variously have one, two, and three arms. Some of those arms will have five fingered hands, but a lot will have two fingered parallel jaw grippers. Some may have suction cups. But they will still be called humanoid robots.
Then there will be versions which have a lot of sensors that are not passive cameras, and so they will have eyes that see with active light, or in non-human frequency ranges, and they may have eyes in their hands, and even eyes looking down from near their crotch to see the ground so that they can locomote better over uneven surfaces. But they will still be called humanoid robots.
There will be many, many robots with different forms for different specialized jobs that humans can do. But they will all still be called humanoid robots.
And a lot of money will have disappeared, spent on trying to squeeze performance, any performance, from today’s humanoid robots. But those robots will be long gone and mostly conveniently forgotten.
That is the next fifteen years for you.
I agree with Rodney. How about you?
